Dubai, September 4, 2025 (Qahwa World) – Coffee drinkers around the world are paying more than ever for their daily brew. In the United States, the price of ground roast coffee reached $8.41 per pound in July, a record high and a 33% jump from last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Prices for all types of coffee, including instant and roasted, were also up 14.5% year-on-year in July. That made coffee the second-fastest rising item in the consumer price index, just behind eggs.

This sharp increase is the result of three main factors: extreme weather in producing countries, falling inventories, and new trade tariffs on Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter.

Weather shocks

Coffee is highly sensitive to climate conditions. Even small changes in weather can damage the crop and reduce yields.

Brazil, which produces about 40% of the world’s coffee, has faced a mix of severe drought and heavy rains in recent seasons. Experts call this pattern “precipitation whiplash.” The plants first suffer from lack of water, then get too much, leaving beans of lower quality and lower quantity.

Vietnam, the second-largest producer, had a similar problem. Its coffee production dropped by 20% in 2024 due to drought. Later, heavy rains caused further damage to the harvest.

“Coffee plants are very sensitive to their environment,” said Mike Hoffmann, professor emeritus at Cornell University. “Drought weakens the plants, then excess water comes in and harms the quality and the yield.”

Trade tariffs

On top of weather problems, trade policy is adding more pressure. The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee, which could keep prices high in the U.S. and other markets.

A report by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) warned in August that these tariffs would place “upward pressure” on global prices, especially since the U.S. imports about 32% of its coffee from Brazil.

Still, analysts believe big chains can manage the cost better than small buyers. For example, Starbucks might only need to raise prices by 0.5% or less to cover the tariff cost, thanks to its large size and strong purchasing power.

Low inventories

For the past few years, many coffee companies chose to run down their existing stockpiles instead of buying beans at higher market prices. As a result, global inventories are now at very low levels compared with history.

According to a Bernstein research report, when inventories are low, the market is more exposed to sudden shocks. If demand rises or if another supply problem hits, prices can spike very quickly.

Prices and consumption

The way consumers feel the price increase depends on how they buy their coffee.

At grocery stores, coffee prices usually follow commodity prices more closely. When wholesale prices go up, supermarkets often raise prices quickly. When prices fall, they may use discounts and promotions to attract shoppers.

In coffee shops and restaurants, prices are less volatile. Chains like Starbucks or Dunkin’ may take longer to pass higher costs on to customers, since they can spread out the impact across many products and markets.

Short-term and long-term outlook

Some relief could come in the short term. Better weather and new investment in farming productivity may help bring prices down slightly. Sustainable farming methods and technology could also improve efficiency and stabilize supply.

But the long-term picture is more worrying. Climate change is expected to bring more frequent droughts, floods, and extreme weather events. These patterns will continue to hurt production in major coffee regions.

“The prices will continue to go up, in my mind,” Hoffmann said. “Climate change isn’t going away. The severity of droughts, flooding — all of that will get worse. And it’s not just coffee. It’s the whole food supply.”

What it means for the future

The global coffee market is heading toward more uncertainty. Consumption is still growing worldwide, but production is struggling to keep up due to climate, economic, and political challenges.

This means consumers should expect coffee prices to stay higher than average in the coming years, with possible spikes whenever new disruptions occur. For farmers and producers, the situation may bring both risks and opportunities. Those who adopt technology, invest in climate-resilient farming, and improve supply chains may be able to thrive in a difficult environment.

For everyday coffee drinkers, the “morning cup” may remain affordable at big chains for now, but at-home brewers are likely to keep seeing bigger swings in grocery store prices.

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